Ifaranga ry’Uburusiya ryongeye gusubirana agaciro ryari rifite mbere y’uko bushoza intambara kuri Ukraine

Uburusiya bwatanze ingwate z’amafaranga hifashishijwe igenzura ry’imari ndetse n’inyungu ziri hejuru, bituma muri uyu mwaka bwinjiza amafaranga menshi kugeza ubu. Iyi ngingo iri muzituma hatangazwa ko hakiri kare cyane kuwashaka kuvuga ko ubukungu bw’Uburusiya bwasubiye inyuma cyane.

Ubukungu bw’igihugu bugomba gusuzumwa bute?

Nk’uko tubikesha Anadolu Agency, Ku bijyanye n'Uburusiya ibintu biracyagoranye cyane kubera ko ari igihugu kiri mu ntambara ndetse n'ubukungu bwacyo buri mu gihirahiro, ibi bijyana n'izamuka ry'ifaranga rikabije ndetse no kugabanuka k'ubukungu bikabije bitewe ahanini n'ibihano biremereye byafashwe n'ibihugu by'iburengerazuba.

Iki ni igihugu cyahuye n’ibihano byashyizweho n’ibihugu byo mu burengerazuba kuva mu mwaka wa 2014, igihe cyafataga mu buryo butemewe igice cya Ukraine cyitwa Crimée, kandi kuri iyi nshuro bigaragara ko cyiteguye guhangana n’ihungabana ry’ubukungu ryatangiye ku kigero cyo hejuru kuruta uko byari bimeze mu myaka umunani ishize.

By'umwihariko, ifaranga ry’Uburusiya rizwi nka ruble ryatunguye abatuye isi nyuma yo kuva mu bihano ryari ryafatiwe n’ibihugu by’iburengerazuba, byafatiye ku gipimo cya 150 ku madorari y'Abanyamerika mu ntangiriro za Werurwe. Magingo aya, muri Gicurasi hagati, ryiyongereye rigera kuri 61.25, iri ni izamuka ku kigero cyo hejuru cyane mu mezi 28 ashize.

Bamwe batekereza ko uku kwihagararaho kw’ifaranga ryabo ari ikimenyetso cyo guhangana n’ubukungu, ariko abahanga mu bukungu bazwi cyane batangaza ko ibintu bitameze neza nk’uko bigaragara.

Nta buryo bwo kuvuga ubukungu bw’u Burusiya

Serge Guriev, impuguke mu by'ubukungu mu Burusiya akaba n'umwarimu muri Science Po i Paris, avuga ko ubwoba bwari bwinshi kubirebana n’amafaranga bwagabanutse rwose, ariko ntibisobanuye ko ubukungu bw’u Burusiya bugenda neza.

                         Inzobere mu bukungu Guriev 

Iyi nzobere ikomeza ivuga ko ubu atari uburyo bwo kuvuga ko ubukungu bw'Uburusiya buhagaze neza. Mu kiganiro cyihariye yagiranye n’ikigo cya Anadolu, Guriev yavuze ko ibiteganijwe gukorwa mu bukungu bw’Uburusiya bidatanga icyizere na gato, avuga ko ibiteganijwe muri Banki Nkuru y’Uburusiya mu 2022 byerekana ko ubukungu bwifashe nabi ku gipimo kiri hagati 8% kugeza 10%.

Ibi bigaragaza ko mbere y’intambara hari hiyongereyeho 3%, amakuru aheruka gutangazwa yerekana ko ingengo y’imari imbere mu gihugu iri hasi ku kigero kiri kuri 12%  byaba byarahindutse mu mwaka wa 2022 nk'uko byavuzwe n’umunyeshuri w’inararibonye, akaba n’umuyobozi mu ishuri ry’ubukungu i Moscow kugeza muri 2013.

Ihungabana ry’ubukungu mu myaka 30 ishize.

Nk’uko Guriev akomeza abitangaza, uyu mwaka ugiye kuba ingorabahizi ku bukungu bw'Uburusiya bitewe n'uko imiryango mpuzamahanga iteganya ko ibipimo biri hagati ya 8% kugeza 11% bizagabanuka.

Imibare igaragaza ko uku gusenyuka kwatangiye. Urugero rutangwa, inganda zose zikora ibinyabiziga zahagaze, nk'uko Guriev yabisobanuye avuga ko nta modoka nshya (0km nk’uko tubivuga) baherutse gusohora, kubera ko ibice bitumizwa mu mahanga byifashishwaga mu kuzikora ntabyo. Yavuze ko n’ubwo ibice bitumizwa mu Bushinwa bishobora kugabanya ibi, ibihe bigoye byo biritezwe ku urwego imodoka z’Uburusiya ruriho.

Ibi akaba ari ko bimeze kandi no ku ndege. Ni nako bimeze no ku bicuruzwa byose bikomoka mu nganda zikoresha ibitumizwa hanze y’Uburusiya (semi-conductor). Hariho ibintu bimwe na bimwe bikiri mu bubiko, bityo bigahita byinjiza amafaranga ariko nta mibare igaragaza ko mu gihembwe gikurikira bizaba bigihari.

               Ifaranga rikoreshwa mu burusiya (Ruble)

Kugaruka kwa Ruble 'ntabwo ari ikimenyetso cy’imbaraga, ahubwo ni intege nke, ku kuntu ruble yagarutse ku rwego rw’intambara mbere y’intambara, yavuze ko forumire yabyo yari yoroshye cyane.

"Kubera ko inganda z'Uburusiya zaciwe mu bukungu bw'isi kandi ntizishobora gutumiza mu Burengerazuba - ikintu cyose usibye ibicuruzwa bivura imiti, ahanini - Uburusiya ntibukeneye amadorari".

Yasobanuye ko rero amafaranga yo ahari cyane kuri konti bityo akabyishimira, ariko ko ibyo ari ingaruka z’ubukungu zisanzwe ziba iyo hafashwe ibihano ku bicuruzwa by’amahanga.

Kandi ibi ntabwo ari ikimenyetso cy’imbaraga z’ubukungu.  Ati: "Ahubwo ni ikimenyetso cy'intege nke ariko mu bihe bisanzwe, ifaranga riba irikomeye iyo ryerekana imbaraga mu guhangana n'ubukungu.”

Barry Eichengreen impuguke mu by'ubukungu muri kaminuza ya Californiya, Berkeley, avuga ku magambo ya Guriev yavuze ko ari ngombwa gutandukanya ihangana ku birebana n’ivunjisha no guhangana ku birebana n’ubukungu.

IMF igaragaza ko ubukungu bw’Uburusiya bwagabanutseho hejuru ya 8% muri uyu mwaka, bikaba biri hasi cyane ugereranyije n’uko byari biteganijwe kuko intambara izazamukaho 3%, agakomeza avuga ko ibi byari gutuma habaho ihungabana rikomeye.

Igipimo cy’ivunjisha gishyigikirwa n’igenzura rikomeye rikorwa ku mari. Ku ikubitiro, ivunjisha ryaragabanutse, bitewe no guhaguruka kw'imari shingiro. Igenzura ry'ivunjisha hamwe n'ibindi bikoresho bibujijwe kwinjira mu gihugu birinda ibi gukomeza kuzamuka. Eichengreen yavuze ko hagati aho, Banki nkuru ishobora gushyigikira igipimo cy’ivunjisha hifashishijwe amadolari n’amayero yabonetse binyuze mu kohereza ingufu mu mahanga. Kubwibyo, kugarura kw’amadorari n’amayero.

Yakomeje avuga ko nta kimenyetso cyerekana ko ubukungu bwifashe nabi mu gihugu cy’Uburusiya, bitewe n’uko ifaranga riteganijwe kugera kuri 20%, nibigenda gutyo nibwo hazabaho ihungabana rikomeye mu mibereho.

Umwanditsi: Iradukunda Olivier