Ibitero Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika na Israel bagabye kuri Iran ndetse n’iyicwa ry’Umuyobozi Mukuru w’ikirenga wa Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, byateje impungenge i Moscow mu Burusiya.
Bamwe mu basesenguzi b’Abarusiya bazwiho ibitekerezo bikomeye bavuga ko n’u Burusiya bushobora kugabwaho ibitero nk’ibyo, nubwo bufite intwaro za kirimbuzi nyinshi cyane.
Bavuga ko amagambo akunze kuvugwa n’abayobozi bo mu bihugu by’i Burengerazuba ku bijyanye n’intambara ishobora kuba hagati yabo n’u Burusiya ari ikimenyetso cy’uko bishoboka.
Nubwo ibyo bitero kuri Iran bituma u Burusiya bugira impungenge, hari n’ababifata nk’ikimenyetso gishyigikira uburyo u Burusiya bumaze igihe bubona politiki mpuzamahanga. I Moscow bavuga ko ibi bishimangira igitekerezo cy’uko ibihugu by’i Burengerazuba biyobowe na Amerika bishobora gufata ibyemezo bikomeye kandi bidatekerejweho neza.
Kuri Perezida w’u Burusiya, Vladimir Putin, intambara ya Amerika kuri Iran ishobora kumwibutsa ibyabaye mu 2011 muri Libya. Icyo gihe ingabo za NATO zagabye ibitero byakuye ku butegetsi umuyobozi wa Libya, Muammar Gaddafi. Nyuma gato, Gaddafi yaje kwicwa n’inyeshyamba, amashusho y’urupfu rwe akwirakwira ku mbuga nkoranyambaga ku isi yose.
Icyo gihe abayobozi b’ibihugu by’i Burengerazuba bishimiye ihirikwa ry’ubutegetsi bwa Gaddafi, ariko nyuma Libya ntiyigeze igera ku mahoro cyangwa ku iterambere nk’uko byari byitezwe. Ahubwo igihugu cyinjiye mu ntambara z’imbere mu gihugu no mu gucikamo ibice.
Ku ruhande rwa Putin, ibi byabaye nk’inyigisho ikomeye ku byashobora kumubaho we ubwe cyangwa igihugu cye mu gihe yakwemera igitutu cy’ibihugu by’i Burengerazuba bishaka guhindura ubutegetsi mu bindi bihugu.
Mu mpera za 2011, mu Burusiya habaye imyigaragambyo yamaganaga ibyavugwaga ko ari uburiganya mu matora y’abadepite, ikorwa n’abantu benshi bo mu mijyi bashinjwaga gushyigikira ibitekerezo by’i Burengerazuba.
Putin yamaze amezi abirebera ariko nyuma aza gufata ingamba zikomeye zo guhashya iyo myigaragambyo mbere y’uko yongera kurahira nka Perezida muri Gicurasi 2012. Ibi byabaye impinduka ikomeye muri politiki y’imbere mu gihugu ndetse n’iyo mu mahanga y’u Burusiya.
Nyuma y’igihe kitageze ku myaka ibiri, u Burusiya bwagiye no kwivanga mu bibazo byabereye muri Ukraine mu gihe cy’impinduramatwara ya Maidan. Putin afata ibyo yakoze muri Ukraine nk’ibyari bikenewe kugira ngo igihugu cye kirinde ko cyakorerwa nk’ibyabaye muri Iraq, Libya cyangwa Syria.
Kuri ubu, u Burusiya buvuga ko intambara bwagabye kuri Ukraine mu 2014 ndetse n’igitero gikomeye cyatangiye mu 2022 byari uburyo bwo kwirinda ko ibihugu by’i Burengerazuba byaza kubyivangamo mu buryo bwa gisirikare.
Mu ntambara iri hagati y’u Burusiya na Ukraine, Iran yaje kugaragara nk’umufatanyabikorwa utari witezwe cyane. Iran yahaye u Burusiya ikoranabuhanga rikomeye mu bijyanye na drones (indege zitagira abapilote), zari zifite uruhare runini mu ntambara.
Ibi ariko si ukubera ubucuti gusa, kuko Tehran yahawe amafaranga menshi cyane n’u Burusiya byafashije kuzahura ubukungu bwayo bwari bwifashe nabi nk'uko biri mu nkuru ya Aljazeera yanditswe na Leonid Ragozin.
Nubwo bimeze bityo, umubano w’u Burusiya na Iran si uwo ku rwego rwatuma Moscow yivanga mu ntambara iriho ubu ku ruhande rwa Iran. Byongeye kandi, u Burusiya bufite ubwumvikane butanditse na Israel, aho Israel yanze guha Ukraine intwaro zikomeye ndetse ntiyanashyigikira ibihano byafatiwe u Burusiya.
Ikindi kandi, Israel yabaye nk’ahantu hizewe ku baherwe b’Abarusiya benshi bafitanye isano ya hafi n’icyo gihugu.
Hari n’indi mpamvu ituma u Burusiya budafata uruhande muri iyi ntambara. Perezida wa Amerika, Donald Trump, na we agaragaza ko ashaka ko intambara hagati y’u Burusiya na Ukraine yarangira binyuze mu biganiro aho gukomeza imirwano. U Burusiya rero ntibushaka gukora ikintu cyahungabanya umubano bushaka kugirana n’ubutegetsi bwa Trump.
Mu by’ukuri, n’iyo u Burusiya bwaba bushaka gufasha Iran cyane, bushobora kuba budafite ubushobozi buhagije bwo kubikora kubera ko buri mu ntambara ikomeye muri Ukraine. Ikindi kandi, Iran ishobora kutabasha kwishyura amafaranga menshi asabwa ku ikoranabuhanga rya gisirikare.
Ku rundi ruhande ariko, intambara ya Amerika na Israel kuri Iran ishobora kugirira u Burusiya akamaro mu gihe gito. Intambara imaze gutuma ibiciro bya peteroli na gaze bizamuka ku isoko mpuzamahanga, bigatuma u Burusiya bwinjiza amafaranga menshi mu bicuruzwa by’ingufu bugurisha.
Ibiciro by’ingufu nibizamuka cyane bishobora no kugora Umuryango w’Ubumwe bw’u Burayi (EU), uri mu bafasha cyane Ukraine mu bijyanye n’amafaranga n’intwaro.
Byongeye kandi, niba Amerika yibanze cyane ku ntambara yo mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati, bishobora gutuma igabanya intwaro yajyaga iha Ukraine, cyane cyane izo kurinda ikirere nka missiles zihanura ibisasu byo mu kirere.
Mu gihugu imbere mu Burusiya na ho, Putin ashobora kungukira ku mashusho y’akaduruvayo n’isenyuka ry’ibintu biri kugaragara muri Iran.
Ibi bishobora gutuma abaturage b’u Burusiya barushaho kwizera ko igihugu cyabo gikwiye kurindwa n’ubuyobozi bukomeye, bigatuma isura ya Putin nk’umurinzi w’igihugu irushaho gukomera, nubwo uburyo ayobora bufatwa nk’ubutegetsi bukomeye.
Hagaragajwe uko u Burusiya bushobora kungukira mu ntambara ya Amerika na Israel kuri Iran
Intambara ya Amerika na Israel kuri Iran ishobora kumara igihe kirekire igahungabanya ubukungu bw'Isi