Mu 2064 Isi izaba ituwe na miliyari 9.7, Nigeria izaba ari igihugu cya 2 gituwe cyane mu mwaka wa 2100

Mu bushakashatsi bwakozwe n’Umuryango w’Abibumbye (United Nations) umwaka ushize bwagaragaje ko ubwiyongere bw’abaturage ku isi bushobora kuzagabanuka guhera mu ntangiriro z’ikinyejana gitaha, ni ukuvuga guhera mu mwaka 2100. Gusa ubushakashatsi bugakomeza buvuga ko hashobora kuzaba ubwiyongere bw’abaturage kugera kuri miliyari 10.9 mu mpera z'iki kinyejana turimo ugereranyije na miliyari 7.8 z’abaturage batuye isi muri uyu mwaka turimo wa 2020.

Ubushakashatsi bwasohowe kuri uyu wa Kabiri na Lancet Journal bwagaragaje ko ubwiyongere bw’abaturage ku isi bushobora kuziyongera kugera kuri miliyari 9.7 mu mwaka 2064 ni ukuvuga mu binyacumi bine biri imbere. Ubu bushakashatsi bugakomeza bugaragaza ko umubare w’abaturage uzagabanuka kugera kuri miliyari 8.8 mu mwaka 2100.

Muri ubu bushakashatsi bavuga ko mu bihugu bigera ku 183 muri 195 bigize isi hazaba igabanuka ry’abaturage mu mpera z'iki cyinyejana. Igabanuka ry’abaturage ubu bushakashatsi buvuga ko buzaterwa n’iganuka ry’umubare w’abana bavuka uzagabanuka cyane mu bihugu birenga makumyabiri harimo ibihugu nka Esipanye, Ubutaliyani n’Ubuyapani, aho bavuga ko hazaba igabanuka ry’abaturage kugera kuri 50%.

Abashakashatsi bo muri kaminuza ya Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation mu bushakashatsi bwabo bakoze bagaragaje ko umubare w’abaturage ku isi ushobora kugera kuri miliyari 8.8 mu mwaka 2100, iyi mibare iza ivuguruza iyasohowe n’Umuryango w’Abibumbye mu mwaka ushize wa 2019 aho haganutseho hafi miliyari zigera kuri ebyiri.

Ibyo aba bashakashatsi bagaragaza ko bizatuma haba igabanuka ry’abaturage mu bihugu byinshi bitandukanye ku isi bizaterwa nuko impuzandengo y’abana umugore abyara yagabanutseho 2.1. Ibi bigaragazwa nuko nko mu mwaka 1950, impuzandengo y’abana umugore yabyaraga yari kuri 4.5 ubu ikaba igenda igabanuka.

Ubu bushakashatsi bugaragaza ko ubwiyongere bw’abaturage ku isi bw’agabanutseho hafi 50% kuri 2.4 mu mwaka wa 2017, bikaba biteganyijwe ko iri gabanuka rizagera munsi ya 1.7 mu mwaka 2100. Aba bashakashatsi bavuga ko kubona byoroshye serivisi zijyanye no kuboneza urubyaro, guhitamo kubyara umubare muto w’abana kubera kujijuka ku bashakanye, izi ni zimwe mu mpamvu zizatuma haba igabanuka ry’abaturage.

Kuboneza urubyaro ni imwe mu mpamvu nyamukuru izatuma ubwiyongere bw’abaturage bugabanuka

N'ubwo bimwe mu bice bitandukanye bigize isi hazaba igabanuka ry’abaturage, si ko bizaba bimeze muri bimwe mu bihugu bwo munsi y’ubutayu bwa Sahara na bimwe mu bice by’umugabane wa Aziya aho umubare w’abaturage uzakomeza kwiyongera. Muri ubu bushakashatsi bavuga ko igihugu cya Nigeria gishobora kuzaba igihugu cya kabiri mu bihugu bifite umubare munini w’abaturage ku isi mu mwaka wa 2100, aho umubare w’abaturage uzaba ugeze kuri miliyoni 791.

Ubushakashatsi bugaragaza ko Nigeria n'Ubuhinde azaba iri bimwe mu bihugu bifite umubare munini w’abaturage mu mpera z'iki cyinyejana

Igihugu cy’u Bushinwa ubu gifite umubare munini w’abaturage, ubu bushakashatsi bugaragaza ko hazaba igabanuka ry’umubare w’abaturage kuva kuri miliyari 1.4 kugera kuri miliyoni 732. Igihugu cy’u Buhinde ni cyo kizasimbura u Bushinwa ku mwanya wa mbere mu kugira umubare munini w’abaturage.

Kubera igabanuka ry’abaturage mu bihugu bitandukanye ibi bizaba imbogamizi kuri bimwe mu bihugu kubera ko umubare w’abantu bakuze bageze igihe cyo gukora imirimo itandukanye bazagabanuka cyane. Iri gabanuka ry’abaturage abashakashatsi bavuga ko rizatuma hagabanuka kwangirika kw’ibidukikije aho ubwiyongere bw’ibyuka bihumanya ikirere bizagabanuka.

Src: The Independent & The Straits Times