Iyangizwa ry’ibidukikije mu isi rishobora guhungabanya ikura ry’ubukungu bw’Isi ku kigero cya 0.67 mu myaka 30 iri imbere—ubwo ni mu mwaka wa 2050. Mu ngano y’amafaranga, agera ku miriyali 368 z’Amayero ni yo ashobora kuzajya agabanuka ku bukungu bwa buri mwaka hatagize igikorwa.
Ibihungabanya ibidukikije nabyo biba byinshi. Reba ibyuka byoherezwa mu kirere n’imodoka, inganda, imyanda abantu batwika; reba uburyo hakoreshwa umutungo kamere hirengagijwe ko uzashira, n’ibindi bitandukanye bigaruka bikagabanya amahirwe yo kongera ubukungu bw’ahazaza.
Mu nyigo yakozwe na ‘World Wildlife Fund’, igaragaza ibihugu bifite amahirwe menshi yo guhura n’Ihungabana mu ikura ry’ubukungu mu myaka 30 iri imbere. Iyi nyigo, ishingira ku bushakashatsi bwakozwe na Global Futures, ku bufatanye na Global Trade Analysis Project na Natural Capital project. Iyi nyigo yakorewe mu bihugu 140, igaragaza ko 0.67% bizagabanuka ku izamuka ry’ubukungu bw’isi kuva mu mwaka wa 2050—imyaka 30 imbere.
Iryo gabanuka, rizaba ribarirwa ku kigero cy’igihombo cya miriyali 479 z’ Amadorali buri mwaka—uhereye mu 2050. Hagati y’ umwaka wa 2011 na 2050, hazaba harimio igiteranyo cy’ igihombo gisaga tiriyoni (trillion) 9.87 z’ amadorali, byose bitewe n’ Ihungabana ry’ ibidukikije gusa.
Uburasirazuba n’Uburengerazuba bw’Afurika, Asia yo Hagati, n’ ibice by’ Amajyepfo y’ Amerika, tugaragazwa nk’ uduce tuzahura n’ ingaruka z’ Ihungabana ry’ ibidukikije cyane cyane mu igabanuka ry’ ubukungu. Inkomoko isaba ari; imihindagurikire y’ ibiciro, ubucuruzi n’ ubwiyongere bw’ umusaruro. Ubwo ibi bice bizahombaho 4% ku musaruro w’ imbere mu gihugu (GDP).
Ni mu gihe ibihugu nk’Amerika, Ubuyapani, Ubwongereza, ndetse na Australia, nabyo bishobora kuzahura n’ibyango by’iyangirika ry’ibikorwa remezo biri hafi y’inyanjya, iyangirika ry’ibihingwa, n’ibindi. Ibi byose, bitekerezwa ko bizaterwa n’ imyuzure ndetse n’ isuri y’ imvura. Nk’ Amerika bigaragazwa ko izahomba—ku musaruro w’ imbere—miriyali 83$ buri mwaka uhereye mu 2050, naho Ubuyapani (Japan) bugahomba miriyali 80$, Ubwongereza bwo buhombye miriyali 21$.
Ubu bushakashatsi bunagaragaza ko haramutse hagize igikorwa—mucyo bise ‘Global Conservation scenario’—ubwo isi yaba ifashe gahunda y’ iterambere rirambye, harindwa ibidukikije, buri mwaka umusaruro w’ imbere mu gihugu wajya ukura ku kigero cya 0.02%—mu ngano y’ amafaranga, ni miriyali 11$ buri mwaka—uhereye mu mwaka wa 2050. Ubwo muri rusange, hajya hinjira miriyali 490$ buri mwaka.
Src: theguardian.com, worldwildlife.org,
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